Former Far Eastern Economic Review editor Philip Bowring, who has lived in Hong Kong since 1973 and today writes opinion pieces for the International Herald Tribune, recently wrote an essay in the Hong Kong Journal about the threat to Hong Kong’s identity. His key points:
“Hong Kong’s future prosperity, its assumed status as a world class city with living standards to match Tokyo, London or New York, is closely bound up with its sense of identity. Forty years from now, when the One Country, Two Systems formula and Special Administrative Region status will have expired, China as a whole may be as prosperous as Japan, Germany and the US. In which case there is no reason why Hong Kong should not be China’s San Francisco. But, in the meantime, it has a struggle on its hands to retain an identity which allows it to follow policies to help sustain its position as one of the world’s richest cities, which necessarily means revisiting pressures to force the pace of integration with a still much poorer mainland.
“In turn that means focusing more on what makes Hong Kong different, emphasizing the positive aspects which no city is the mainland will be able to offer, at least in a medium term of at least a decade. By then, Hong Kong’s promised 50 years of special status will be roughly at mid-point. Failure to do so could easily have several negative results.”
He concluded:
“Hong Kong must raise its sights beyond the muddy waters of the Pearl River delta, and focus on its differences. Look at the challenges to its role vis-a-vis both the mainland and the world at large. Look to fostering links to a southeast Asian Chinese community which once played a key role in its financial sector. Look to bolstering links with Japan and Korea. Be more open to Indians, Malaysians (not just ethnic Chinese). Clean up the environment – forget authoritarian Singapore; if Taipei and Seoul can do it why not Hong Kong? “Asia’s World City” is a fine idea but remains a self-deluding slogan.”It also needs to consider changing its currency system. The US dollar peg may have been useful but could well become a liability if its international role declines and Asian currencies in particular float against each other or use different benchmarks such as trade-weighted baskets. Hong Kong’s separate status and international role would be best served by a currency management system similar to that used by Singapore to maintain a strong and independent currency. But Beijing may well prefer that if there is to be a change it should be a peg to the Yuan. It is doubtful if a risk-averse Hong Kong government has the self confidence to develop and operate an independent monetary and exchange rate regime.
“Hong Kong needs a degree of vision unlikely to be found in consultants’ reports or in the heads of career civil servants with scant international exposure and a level of self-esteem not necessarily shared by the community. And it needs political will. At the time of the handover I wrote that Hong Kong could well be better off if it had a Chief Executive from the mainland with political clout in Beijing. Mayors of Shanghai, Nanjing and Dalien have proven their worth by fighting not for vague notions of national solidarity but for the betterment of their cities. Hong Kong, on the other hand, was likely to end up with a local worthy acceptable to Beijing but with little political base either there or at home, and often beholden to vested business interests that remain a drag on still-flourishing real entrepreneurship. In that respect, Tsang is weaker than Tung Chee-hwa, his unsuccessful predecessor.
“None of this is meant to write off Hong Kong, which still attracts talent and gives scope for new ideas. Self-improvement is still deeply engrained and foreigners still have readier access than almost anywhere. But this is no time to be resting on laurels, or relying mainly on mainland success to pull Hong Kong along. Otherwise, historians will look back on the city in much the same way people today may look back on Trieste or Tangier, Lubeck or Weihai.”
What do you think? Is Hong Kong going to fade?